Charlotte NC Economist Predicts New Home Recession will End by Fall

In Charlotte, North Carolina sales increased 1% in January compared to a dismal December when retail sales dipped nearly 3%. The turnaround marks the biggest increase in more than a year. Automobile sales and general merchandise stores saw strong increases. And new jobless claims are down -- 623,000 people filed for unemployment benefits last week compared to 631,000 in the previous week. At least one economic researcher feels we may be out of this economic mess sooner than we think. In a recent address, Pres. Barack Obama told the media, We are going through the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression . Obama's statement has become a commonly held belief. But UNC-Charlotte economic professor John Connaughton disagrees. I think it's been blown out of proportion he said. He concedes the current recession is difficult for many, but he says the last major recession in 1982 was worse. In terms of the burden on the individual, it's a little less than it was in 1982 where you still had inflation. Despite the thousands who have lost their jobs recently, the national unemployment rate is a lot lower than it was in 1982. The national unemployment rate in 1982 shot up to 10.8%. Right now the national rate sits at 7.6%. He says that may get a little worse before it gets better, but it still should not come near double digits. Another difference from 1982, things are more affordable. The economy is experiencing deflation right now as opposed to inflation in 1982 so this notion of trying to compare this as the worst since the Great Depression simply is not factual. The professor predicts the recession will end by this fall and companies will start rehiring by the end of the year. News Channel 36 asked Connaughton what’s holding up the recovery. Once people get over this fear and once they get the sense that these massive layoffs are over, I think you'll start seeing the economy picking up pretty substantially he said. Cannaughton says that the unemployment numbers from February are slightly lower than January and December, then we’re on track for a Mid-summer recovery. But he admits it may not feel like a recovery for another year. If you've lost your job, you probably don't feel much like partying, but partying is exactly what nearly 500 people did in South End Thursday night. It was the pink slip networking party sponsored by Charlotte Center City partners, at Jillian's on Southland Street. The idea was to put job seekers together with each other and with organizations and companies that could help. The crowd was huge, and full of a wide variety of people. I did land a really good job for a while but I got laid off a couple months ago and am back to the drawing boards, resent Appalachian State graduate Lucy Harland said. It's tough. I've been talking to people, I've been interviewing with companies, but I haven't been able to close on anything yet, experienced human resources hopeful Allan Lourie told us. He's been out of work for about a year. Eric Henderson was laid off from a machinist job just about 10 days ago. It's been over 20 years since I had to fill out an application. It's like everything is new, he said. I'm just trying to find whatever I can. I'm not choosey. Just trying to keep the bills paid, keep the food on the table, and keep a roof over my head. Companies like CMPD and Presbyterian Hospital had booths in a large dining room at Jillian's. Job coaching companies also set up tables. Jillian’s offered food and games to keep things light, and Center City Partners brought Leadership Coach Mike Whitehead to motivate the group in a short speech. Mayor Pat McCrory also spoke and empathized with the job seekers, reminding the crowd that he had lost a very public job – governor -- when his November campaign ended with a loss to Gov. Bev Perdue. Networkers and headhunters mingled with the unemployed as well. Center City Partners Moria Quinn told news Channel 36 one job seeker was even offered a receptionist job by businessmen who worked nearby. If we allow these people to connect and stay engaged in our community they are the secret measure for us coming out of this through in the economy and positioning for renewed strength, Center City Partners CEO Michael Smith said.  Center City Partners plans more pink slip parties -- and soon. Quinn says several bars in Downtown Charlotte NC Real Estate have expressed an interest in hosting such an event.